Dr Elisabeth Vogel

Postdoctoral Research Fellow, Water Research Centre

The University of New South Wales

Dr. Elisabeth Vogel is a Postdoctoral Research Fellow at the Water Research Centre of the University of New South Wales (UNSW). Her research investigates the impacts of hydro-climate extremes (such as droughts, heatwaves), and particularly compound extremes, on global food production and water resources. Before joining UNSW, Elisabeth was a Research Hydrologist at the Australian Bureau of Meteorology where she led a team of hydrologists and software engineers in developing a new seasonal hydrological forecasting system for Australia. Prior to her role at the Bureau, Elisabeth completed a PhD in Earth Sciences at the University of Melbourne, investigating the effect of hydro-climate extremes on global agriculture using novel machine learning techniques. Throughout her career, Elisabeth collaborated with national and international partners, including the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impacts Research and the UN Environment Programme. Elisabeth’s research has been published in prestigious high-impact journals and recognised as excellent through multiple awards.

The impact of hot and dry compound events on agricultural production in Australia

Australia's climate is highly variable both in space and time and characterised by hydro-climate extremes (such as droughts and heatwaves). Such extremes are projected to become more frequent and/orintense under climate change. Agricultural production is particularly affected by hydro-climatic extremes which can have devastating effects on crop yields and livestock health. Previous studies have shown that compound (or concurrent) hot and dry extremes during the growing season are particularly damaging for crop yields, and the effect of such events is typically more harmful than the separate effects of dry or hot events alone. To ensure sustainable food production and agricultural water management into the future, it is crucial to understand the effect of climate change on hydroclimate extremes, particularly hot and dry compound events, and their impacts on Australian agricultural production. The objectives of this study are (1) to investigate the effect of compound hot and dry events on agricultural production in Australia using historical climate, hydrological and agricultural dasets, (2) to assess the risk of future compound event impacts on agriculture based on climate and hydrological projections information, and (3) to determine the predictability of yield losses due to compound events using seasonal climate and hydrological forecasts. The outcome of the project may inform adaptation efforts in the agriculturalsectortowardsrisksfrom compound events and support the development ofseasonal forecasts of hydro-climatic risk indicators for agricultural production in Australia.